So again I have logged in a lot of games with Orion and against Orion and got the time to make the videos showing some stuff, so here we go, I wanted to post this last week but I finally got to do it now.

The TL;DR version is I think Orion's a bit overwhelming due to either Fate Transfer (F/T) mechanics or his large health both combined create a lancer that is hard to punish. In situations where there is order in the team (such as PPL/Fourlancer) Orion can negate up to 2 turn momentum, and most openers.

Base Stats

Orion has a decently large healthpool for the range he packs, his primary has ridiculous range, can orb through walls, cover a large terrain, and act as a mini gremo primary (modded with extra damage, Orion's can deal more damage than a gremo primary). The healing he has and F/T have significantly high range (8 tiles) which allows him to snipe and heal from a long range, providing no way for enemies to retaliate without having to go in hard. However by doing so, they also cannot kill him without being outraded (Ult + Quantum core).

The current health pool Orion has allows him to stay safe, and be extremely dangerous, and does not allow players who mess up their positioning to be punished, as he needs 2+ turns of full firepower focus (or entire team) to bring down. Since he gets awarded energy for being hit, Orion basically wins all such trades, as he cannot be bursted down, and lives too long for sustained fights (especially when combined with another support). A good approach to burst Orion is to soften him first, then burst him down, but to do so, one has to spend a lot of resources, and go in super deep for more than 2 turns, which is something that requires a full team resources to bring down, given Orion's range.

His base pool should be nerfed, at the very least so that he kills himself if hes badly positioned, or takes significant damage if he F/Ts an out of cover target.

I do not think we have reached that sweet spot where he is really in danger when using his ult early in the game.

Fate Transfer

Currently F/T has a significantly large range, and seems to have no reasonable counter-play, with the exception of course of not attacking the target, or simply stacking delayed damage. F/T combined with unstoppable allows one to avoid F/Ts direct weakness which is CC/Traps, ideally if one knows theres a F/T one can CC into traps the target and counter-play it. Your choice is of course to attack another target, other than Orion or the F/T target, because attacking either is basically not advantageous, if they are behind cover, AoEs wont also be sufficient to counter play it.

So here is what I think is a good balance for his kit, F/T should be used to force opponents to guess targets, and does a good job as of now, but should have some counterplay, the counterplay of course, is that Orion cannot give a free pass to anyone caught in a bad position without he, himself taking the damage for him. Or at least, allows Orion to be bursted down (or be under threat of that). I will make three suggestions, and they can be combined or not

* Reduce shields by half on F/T, allow orion by default to heal back 20% of the damage taken that turn. This allows Orion to be bursted that turn, or take a ridiculous damage
* Make Fate Transfer redirect a smaller amount (say 50%), something like the current mod, because then you can choose to either go for the target or Orion, and Orion can be bursted down easier with AoEs
* Remove unstoppable on F/T, grant haste to both orion and target instead. This allows counterplay with CC to happen against Orion
* Reduce F/T range by 1, forcing Orion to be less likely to be seen when hes about to F/T, allows him to F/T less targets
* Reduce Orion's base HP by 30 HP at least

Favorable trades due to these

I illustrate the problem with the following video:
The blue team advantage cannot be pressed at all, even if red team completely positions badly, **in the worst case scenario** orion gets a good trade, wasting full ressources of an entire team for a turn, for 2 turns in total (F/T + Heal recovery next turn). Better scenarios happen if the damage is split between targets, however if you choose one of the two targets, orion still gets a favorable trade, even when all factors are bad (position, vision etc), note that the opponent cannot in any way punish this, without something like Zuki sticky or Phaedra's mending, CC wont even work.

I explicitly chose a high damage output comp against the orion ,to illustrate a whole lot of damage, average team comps will deal less damage.

Orion can still be good, due to his mechanics on the primary, it is also possible to give it a reveal on center mod as well if buffs are needed after the nerfs.
Fate transfer will still be good, but counterable, and Orion cannot punish the team without thinking.